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miaowang123


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 MessagePosté le: Mer 17 Oct - 03:34 (2018)    Sujet du message: the inning after your team scores, Répondre en citant Back to top

Each round of the playoffs, I forecast the round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This method was 5-3 in the first round and is currently 2-1 in the second round, with the Kings favoured entering their series against Anaheim (Game Seven goes tonight in Anaheim). More on context in a moment. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.9 shots on goal per game and the Montreal Canadiens have allowed 31.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 31.95 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Bruins. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Conference Finals: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Montreal 28.7 31.0 Carey Price .927 15.92 N.Y. Rangers 32.9 29.6 Henrik Lundqvist .922 16.33 Verdict: This series projects to be very closely contested. Through the first two rounds this year, only the two Los Angeles series projected to have a closer differential than the forecasted 0.41 goals between the Rangers and Canadiens, and both of those series were seven-gamers. Montreal has been a subpar puck possession team this year, but it turns out that they have a great goaltender and a dangerous power play, one that was 32% (8-for-25) against Boston. Knock off a few power play goals or give Price a save percentage below the .936 that he posted against the Bruins and it would be easy enough to see Boston in this spot. As for the Rangers, they were a strong puck possession club during the season that eliminated Pittsburgh despite losing the possession game to the Penguins in Round Two. The Rangers also have the benefit of good goaltending, as they rallied from a three-games-to-one series deficit, as Henrik Lundqvist stopped 102 of 105 shots (.971 SV%) in the last three Rangers wins. It would be too simple to suggest that goaltending determines this series, since both Price and Lunqvist are among the best, so there are other factors to consider. Both teams top-scoring forwards havent produced in the postseason. No one on the Rangers has more than Brad Richards nine points in 14 games and Rick Nash has yet to score a goal. Montreals big goal-scorers, Thomas Vanek and Max Pacioretty, combined to score four goals in Game Six and Seven against Boston, after combining for four in the first nine games of the playoffs. The lack of a go-to-scorer for both teams has emphasized the team approach. For Montreal, Lars Eller, Brendan Gallagher, Daniel Briere, Dale Weise and Rene Bourque are among those that have risen to the occasion at times in the playoffs, while the Rangers supporting cast of Benoit Pouliot, Derick Brassard and Carl Hagelin has been able to score just enough for the Blueshirts to reach the Conference Final. If there is a single non-goaltender with the power to shift the series, it could be Montreals P.K. Subban, the top-scoring defenceman in the playoffs who has been in the middle of just about everything that happens with the Canadiens. If Subban is great, that alone could be enough to overcome the slight statistical disadvantage in this forecast. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Chicago 32.4 27.7 Corey Crawford .919 17.64 Los Angeles 31.5 26.9 Jonathan Quick .915 16.78 Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Chicago 32.4 27.7 Corey Crawford .919 10.71 Anaheim 30.7 28.8 John Gibson .950 16.56 Verdict: Since there isnt much of a window between the second round ending, Friday night, and the Conference Final round beginning, Saturday at 1:00 pm ET, were going to look at both options in the Western Conference. Chicago hasnt even played their best hockey in the postseason, yet its still been good enough to dispatch St. Louis and Minnesota. Corey Crawford deserves some credit, because his .931 save percentage in this years playoffs is right on track with what he did last year (.932) on the way to the Blackhawks winning the Stanley Cup. Chicago was a dominant possession team during the regular season, second only to Los Angeles in Fenwick Close, but havent held that same edge in the playoffs. Better opposition, and all that. The same could be said for the Kings, who earned 56.7% of the unblocked 5-on-5 shot attempts during the regular season, but havent held that same territorial dominance in the playoffs. The interesting thing is that, while hes had some strong games in the playoffs -- both this year and historically -- Jonathan Quick hasnt been much better than average this year. Its reasonable enough to forecast the Blackhawks to survive that possible matchup, and not just because we know the Blackhawks will for sure be in the Conference Final. When it comes to breaking down the Chicago-Anaheim series, the model gets busted by Ducks rookie goalie John Gibson. Its one thing to have a goalie that has played a grand total of six games in the NHL as the starter, but his .950 save percentage in those games, stopping 171 of 180 shots, is a completely unsustainable level of play. Thing is, unsustainable levels of play can get a team through a playoff series. Gibson was a wildcard injection into the second round, against Los Angeles, after Frederik Andersen was injured, and gives the Ducks a chance in Game Seven. However, its not remotely reasonable forecast to suggest that the Ducks would be 5.85 goals ahead of the Blackhawks in a head-to-head seven-game series. The Ducks arent as strong a possession team as Los Angeles, or Chicago, and have relied on extraordinary shooting percentage, in addition to their hot goalie. The Blackhawks have been a team of high-percentage finishers too, so the Ducks best chance, should they survive the Battle of Los Angeles, may be for Gibson to keep on keeping on. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen.  For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Micheal Haley Jersey . PAUL, Minn – The clock lingered for what seemed like an interminable two minutes and 51 seconds before Mark Fraser finally escaped to the bench during a wildly one-sided first period of an eventual loss to Boston. Aaron Ekblad Jersey . The midfielder had an operation on Saturday, and is set to miss seven Premier League games, the third round of the FA Cup and the semifinals of the League Cup. http://www.nhlpanthersauthority.com/authentic-aleksi-heponiemi-panthers-jersey/ . They wanna make t-shirts about it and sell them at our next hockey game..DB: Wow, they want to make t-shirts? That sounds pretty amazing.MS: Yeah, I was also on the Top 10, I was number 1 today, so that was pretty cool. Alex Petrovic Jersey . -- John Fox will coach the Denver Broncos from the sideline and not the booth upon his return Sunday five weeks after heart surgery. Aleksander Barkov Jersey . This was one of them. Omar Infante homered and tied a career high with six RBIs to carry the Kansas City Royals over the Baltimore Orioles 9-3 on Sunday.MINNEAPOLIS -- The Detroit Tigers had Kevin Correia on the ropes in the second inning but missed their first chance to knock him out. They didnt miss their second. Torii Hunter had two hits and two RBIs in the Tigers seven-run third inning that propelled them to a 10-6 victory over the Minnesota Twins on Friday night. "We just got pitches that we could drive," said Hunter, who doubled twice among his three hits. "He left some balls up where we could capitalize on them. This guy pitches really well against us. We dont score many runs off him. But tonight we felt good at the plate and I think we were a little patient today and got some pitches we could handle." Nick Castellanos had a home run and three RBIs to back Rick Porcello (3-1), who gave up four runs and six hits with four strikeouts in five-plus innings for the Tigers. Rajai Davis added three hits to raise his average to .354. Correia (0-3) gave up eight runs -- seven earned -- and eight hits in 2 1-3 innings for Minnesota. It was his shortest outing since going just two innings last Aug. 5 against the Royals. Chris Colabello drove in his 27th run for the Twins, setting a franchise record for RBIs in April. Jason Kubel had two doubles among his three hits for the Twins. Brian Dozier hit his seventh homer of the season and Kurt Suzuki drove in two runs, giving him 19 RBIs on the year, which leads all catchers. Correia served up a two-run homer to Castellanos in the second -- and probably only got through that inning thanks to a poor decision by third base coach Dave Clark to send slow-footed Alex Avila from first base on a double by Andrew Romine. Avila was thrown out at home and Ian Kinsler grounded out to short-circuit the rally. "I was missing from the get-go," Correia said. "Balls were just kind of running back over the middle. I got away with it for an inning or so and then it caught up to me." But the Tigers had more in store for Correia. Hunter led off the third with a doublee and, after Miguel Cabreras groundout, the next five batters reached base with three hits and two walks, the last one from Romine with the bases loaded to make it 5-1.dddddddddddd. Hunter added a two-run single off Anthony Swarzak later in the inning that pushed the lead to 9-1. "They teach that in baseball: The most important inning is the inning after your team scores," Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said. "We were able to bounce back and score not just a few but seven." There are no statements delivered in April, but the Tigers did throw a little cold water on what has been a surprising start to the season for the Twins. Minnesota has lost at least 96 games in each of the past three years, but rode the second-highest scoring offence in the American League to an 11-10 start that put the Twins right on heavily favoured Detroits heels in the AL Central. "Its something positive you can build off of and thats what were going to do, try to carry it over to the next day," Hunter said. "Usually when you get a loss, as a human being you kind of think about that negative and it can carry over and linger. But since we won and its positive, just try to build off it." After breezing through the first five innings, Porcello didnt get an out in the sixth before being lifted for Justin Miller. Ausmus had to use five more pitchers to finish the game, but that big third inning gave his team plenty of cushion to absorb a four-run sixth by the Twins. NOTES: Twins GM Terry Ryan finished his last round of radiation treatment for cancer, assistant GM Rob Antony said. Ryan is expected to return to Target Field this weekend. ... Avila left the game with a bruised left shin and is day to day. ... Twins OF Oswaldo Arcia was scheduled to fly to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday to start a rehab assignment. Arcia has been on the disabled list since April 5 with a wrist injury. ... RHP Anibal Sanchez (0-2, 3.54 ERA) pitches for Detroit on Saturday against RHP Phil Hughes (1-1, 6.43). 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 MessagePosté le: Mer 17 Oct - 03:34 (2018)    Sujet du message: Publicité Back to top

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